Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.